Cautious optimism best for India
Author: Rakesh Kombra
Originally Published at Peace and Conflict Monitor on: 04/14/2005
In
the words of then-Prime Minister of India Atal Behari Vajpayee, the
Amristar-Lahore bus service that evoked much euphoria in India led to Kargil
that brief but intense battle to regain the Himalayan peaks that were
clandestinely occupied by Islamic militants backed by Pakistani armed
forces.
And
to get Kargil back, the Indian armed forces had to fight a pitched battle
against heavy odds to overpower the heavily armed militants and Pakistani
soldiers (of course, Pakistan never owned them even after they were killed in
the fight) who squatted on Indian territory by taking advantage of the winter
when troops on either side usually retreat to comfort zones only to return when
the weather is more hospitable.
The
early 1960s slogan of Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai (Indians and Chinese are brothers)
made by then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru has not been forgotten either.
China mounted a war against
India before the bhai bhai euphoria
even died down and inflicted the worst wounds on its then moderate military
prowess and political pride, leaving Nehru a dejected man who never recovered
from the shock.
And
now we have the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service that has opened up the gateway
of people-to-people contact on the Kashmir side
on April 7, 2005. The intensions even on the Pakistani side seem to be positive,
at least on the surface. Islamabad was the first to condemn the
terrorist attack on the Kashmir Tourist Reception Centre which was set ablaze by
the fidayeens (the so called holy warriors fighting jihad) acting on behalf of
those radical outfits out to thwart the bus service.
Yes, the prime minister of what India calls Pakistan
Occupied Kashmir (PoK) or Azad Kashmir as Pakistan prefers to call it Sardar
Sikander Hayat Khan was ready to see off the 30 passengers from his side and the
18 who crossed over from Jammu and Kashmir at the Aman Sethu, or the Kaman Post,
that was last used by civilians 58 years ago.
In
spite of all this the United Progressive Alliance government in New Delhi is best advised
to remain cautious in its optimism over the long-term impact of the move that at
best is symbolic. For the moment at least, it is better for India to treat
it as a well-executed Confidence Building Measure (CBM). Nothing
more.
At
least four separatist outfits issued threats and later claimed responsibility
for the arson and a IED (improvised explosive device) blast that missed the
inaugural bus by 10 minutes to passengers from the Indian side. The security
provided to the bus and the cordon around Sher-e-Kashmir Stadium in Srinagar where the bus was
flagged off by Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh was rather
unprecedented.
But
there was nothing of that sort in Pakistan Kashmir, where TV footage showed
passengers and onlookers mingling with VIPs, district administration officials
and security personnel before the flag off. Neither did the jihadis based there
issue any threat to passengers who were packing their bags to cross over to the
Indian side. That is proof enough that the masters of these terror groups would
continue with what they have been doing for decades in India.
Those who must have forgotten the run-up to the Kargil
war that came just months after the bonhomie struck by Vajpayee and Nawaz
Sharief (then prime minister of Pakistan who was deposed in a bloodless coup by
General Musharraf in 1999), must be told that there are not many Kashmiri
families divided between the two sides of Kashmir – at least not as many as in
the rest of India and mainland Pakistan.
In
fact, Pakistan has over the
years led a systematic migration of non-Kashmiri ethnic groups like the Punjabis
in the Kashmir it occupies. And it is no secret
that it was done to alter the demographic profile of that region.
On
the other hand, the Indian Kashmir has a separate constitution that ensures
special rights for the people. It also bars people from other parts of
India from buying property in
Kashmir, a feature absent in the Pakistan side. But let the service
continue since it is always good to have some point of contact between the
people of the two sides.
That leaves one fact that has emerged over the past few
months over the bus service: Believe it or not, it is Pakistan that scored diplomatic points in the
international arena by getting India to yield to its demand that the bus
passengers need not have passports a condition that New Delhi was earlier
adamant on till it blinked recently. While it is almost certain that no one from
India would want to infiltrate into
Pakistan Kashmir, the same may not be true the other way round. A case in point
is the number of Pakistani cricket fans who crossed the Wagah border connecting
the Punjab provinces on both sides, but are now
listed as missing .
Yet, the service is necessary and the buses on either
side must continue to roll and perhaps increase the frequency in the near
future. But be watchful as winter is easing and the snow will melt
soon.
Make sure there are no more Kargils. Ensure the ring
masters of the jihadis are not armed with other ways of pushing their wards
across the border. Kashmir is the main obstacle
for lasting peace between the two South Asian neighbours, and the Caravan of
Peace as the bus service is called is a welcome addition to the CBMs already
working to perceivable results. But it is not time yet to bank on it as an
investment for lasting peace for the Kashmiri people. The core issue
India must address is
Pakistan s continuing moral and
material support to separatists who have already killed thousands of innocent
civilians in the Valley in the name of a separate state.
With more points like Sialkot (with Srinagar) and
Kokhrapar (with Munabao, the rail link in Rajasthan) set to be connected to
enhance people-to-people contacts between the two countries that have gone to
war thrice and stood eyeball-to-eyeball on more than one occasion, the CBMs will
continue as an ongoing saga resulting from the thaw. And Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf is
apparently under some kind of pressure from the United States to continue the peace initiatives
even as he is forced to clip militant Islamic outfits that bred and mushroomed
on Pakistan soil to launch their jihad
on infidels all over the world.
Rest assured (read continuance of the General who, it
may be recalled, led the forces during the brief but intense battle over Kargil)
Pakistan is very unlikely to derail
the peace process. In other words, it has little choice especially with the
US administration breathing down its
neck but to cleanse the country of Islamic radical organisations including the
outlawed Al Qaeda.
What must be understood by Indian foreign policy experts
and bureaucrats is that it is a core group of the Pakistani army in alliance
with the ISI that is behind the training and arming of Islamic terror groups. It
remains to be seen how much influence General Musharraf let alone politicians –
wield in these matters.
With larger duties as the nation s President, it is
certain that the mullah-military alliance fomenting hatred against infidels is
working beyond the reach of the General himself. Those who disagree would do
well to find an explanation for all those incursions happening in Kashmir in spite of the Indian armed forces reducing it to
a considerable extent over the past couple of years.
Please understand that the reduction in infiltration as
Indian politicians mouth at every given opportunity – has got more to do with
the efforts of the Indian armed forces rather than the initiatives taken from
across the border. That essentially means that the jehadis are all alive and
kicking and one bus service between the divided Kashmir will not stop them.
While the bus is a good thing rolling,
India must not relax its
diplomatic grip achieved especially after 9/11 when even the US stood up and took note of the terror threat
from jihadis that India had been voicing for almost two
decades. India must continue
mobilising global opinion against terrorism rather than rest on the laurels
achieved by these CBMs including the much-anticipated bus service connecting
Srinagar and
Muzaffarabad.
Let
there be more such bus services between the two sides of Kashmir. Let the people interact. Let those who come in
from PoK get a feel of democracy and secularism, elements that are alien to them
as even their Prime Minister is appointed by the Pakistan
military. But never relax the grip, as is what usually happens with New Delhi.
Bio: Rakesh Kombra is the chief of the news bureau with The Gulf Today, Sharjah, UAE. He has worked for several years in New Delhi and has reported extensively from Kashmir and written extensively on the issue. You can e-mail him at rakeshkombra@yahoo.com
